Will land prices increase? Business, leasing, and the impact of war – year in review

Last week, a meeting took place as part of the Kyiv School of Economics project “Zemlia Nezlamnosti” (“Land of Resilience”), dedicated to the first year of business participation in the land market.

Under the moderation of Latifundist.com Editor-in-Chief Kostiantyn Tkachenko, the discussion addressed both the impact of the market on agribusiness and the influence of the agribusiness sector on land value, as well as future prospects.

Roman Neyter, an expert in agricultural and land policy at KSE, presented an insightful study that highlighted key parameters of the land market:

• The number of land sale transactions grows year by year but has not yet reached pre-war levels.

• Approximately 1% of agricultural land is in circulation, which aligns with indicators in European countries.

• Land value is gradually increasing in Hryvnia equivalent, and the participation of legal entities has slightly accelerated this process.

• The primary business sector purchasing land is, naturally, agriculture.

• Companies cultivating 2500 – 7000 hectares pay the highest prices for land.

• As previously stated, a mass acquisition of land, especially by holdings and foreign companies, certainly did not occur.

All panel participants agreed that land value will directly depend on the size of the rent payment; this correlation is already noticeable in the market.

However, growth in rent payments will not happen without growth in agribusiness profitability, which in turn depends on the overall economic and military situation in the country.